Executive summary
Amazon, Shopify and eBay represent three distinct e-commerce models: Amazon (AMZN) is a massive marketplace + logistics + AWS hybrid; Shopify (SHOP) is a merchant-platform/subscription model powering independent stores; eBay (EBAY) is a marketplace focused on reuse, collectibles and a growing ad/managed-services mix. Recent results show: Amazon reported Q2 2025 net sales $167.7B (+13% YoY). (ir.aboutamazon.com) Shopify delivered Q2 2025 revenue $2.68B (+31% YoY) with strong free-cash-flow margins. (s27.q4cdn.com) eBay reported Q2 2025 net revenues $2.7B and GMV $19.5B, with modest top-line growth and improving marketplace trends. (investors.ebayinc.com)
Major catalysts differ: Amazon—AI and AWS monetization plus logistics efficiency; Shopify—merchant solutions, Payments, and growing GMV; eBay—marketplace take-rate and advertising. Each faces unique risks: macro spending cycles and tariffs for Amazon, merchant churn and cross-border trade frictions for Shopify, and buyer/seller engagement and take-rate pressure for eBay. (Reuters)
Fundamental metrics
Revenue growth and scale
- Amazon (AMZN): Q2 2025 net sales $167.7B, +13% vs Q2-2024 (12% ex-FX). Amazon’s North America segment was $100.1B in the quarter. (ir.aboutamazon.com)
- Shopify (SHOP): Q2 2025 revenue $2.68B, +31% YoY; GMV reported 87,837 (millions), with recurring merchant revenue and merchant solutions driving growth. (s27.q4cdn.com)
- eBay (EBAY): Q2 2025 net revenues $2.7B, GMV $19.5B, up ~6% (as-reported). Marketplace take-rate and advertising drove the revenue mix. (investors.ebayinc.com)
Profitability and margins
- Amazon: overall operating results remain driven by AWS profitability; Amazon’s retail FCF is cyclical and logistics investments weigh margins, though the company continues to emphasize cost efficiency and AI investments. (ir.aboutamazon.com)
- Shopify: reported meaningful gross profit expansion and an operating income improvement; free cash flow margin for Q2 was highlighted at ~16%. Shopify emphasized eight consecutive quarters of double-digit FCF margins. (s27.q4cdn.com)
- eBay: Q2 showed improving non-GAAP EPS and stable gross margins with the business benefitting from ads and services, though GMV remains a key monitor. (investors.ebayinc.com)
EPS, leverage and balance sheet context
- Amazon: scale yields large absolute profits in AWS even if retail margins compress; Amazon’s balance sheet supports capital intensity for data centers and logistics. (See Q2 release.) (s2.q4cdn.com)
- Shopify: growth financed by operating cash flow; reported strong cash generation in Q2 supporting product investment. (s27.q4cdn.com)
- eBay: capital-light marketplace model with modest operating leverage; cash flow is more dependent on GMV and advertising performance. (investors.ebayinc.com)
Valuation multiples (market snapshot)
- Market caps (late-Sep 2025): Amazon ≈ $2.33T, Shopify ≈ $187B, eBay ≈ $42–43B (varies by provider). These market caps imply very different multiple profiles: Amazon priced for continued AWS power and scale, Shopify for SaaS + payments growth, and eBay for steady marketplace cash flows.
- Shopify EV/Revenue guidance: public statistic pages show EV/Revenue in mid-teens to high-teens depending on snapshot; investors price Shopify’s revenue growth and margins accordingly.
Momentum indicators (technical context)
Note: technical indicators change intraday — sources below are the snapshots used for this study.
- Amazon (AMZN): technical dashboards show a mixed short-term technical picture: price oscillation around moving averages and divergence in short-term RSI/MACD signals across providers. Investing-style technical pages provide live RSI/MA status. (Investing.com)
- Shopify (SHOP): technical aggregators show recent strength after Q2 results but also flagged shorter-term moving averages signaling consolidation (some providers flagged a “Strong Sell” on moving average cross-counts on the daily timeframe while others show buy signals on longer MA). Interpret with timeframe. (Investing.com)
- eBay (EBAY): many technical screens show bullish momentum (RSI in the 60s–70s on some pages, MACD positive), consistent with the stock’s post-earnings lift. (Investing.com)
Relative strength: Shopify and Amazon have shown stronger long-run relative performance versus broader indices in 2025 at times, while eBay’s returns have been more muted but recovered after Q2 beats. Use intraday technical feeds for trade timing.
Peer comparison (close competitors and context)
Two useful cross-checks for e-commerce positioning:
- Walmart (WMT): omnichannel incumbent competing on price, logistics and marketplace—Q2 FY26 revenue $177.4B and global e-commerce sales growth ~25%; Walmart invests in store-fulfilled pickup, marketplace and advertising (Walmart Connect). Walmart’s retail scale pressures Amazon on everyday categories and provides a low-price alternative for mass consumers. (Licensing International)
- Etsy (ETSY): niche marketplace for handcrafted/unique goods—Q2 2025 revenue $672.7M (GMS down ~4.8% YoY but revenue up driven by ads and payments). Etsy’s curated marketplace contrasts with Amazon’s mass assortment and Shopify’s merchant-first approach. (investors.etsy.com)
Takeaway: Amazon competes via assortment + logistics + AWS scale; Shopify competes by enabling merchants (platform stickiness and payments); eBay competes on value, reuse and specialized categories. Walmart and Etsy provide bench-marks for scale (WMT) and niche marketplace (ETSY) respectively. (ir.aboutamazon.com)
Most recent earnings highlights and guidance
Amazon (Q2 2025) highlights
- Net sales: $167.7B (+13% YoY). North America sales $100.1B. Management reiterated investments in AI and AWS capacity and continued focus on logistics efficiency. Amazon’s shareholder letter and release outline capital allocation toward AI (including Anthropic partnership) and fulfillment. (s2.q4cdn.com)
Shopify (Q2 2025) highlights
- Revenue: $2.68B (+31% YoY). GMV: 87,837 (millions). Shopify reported gross profit $1.302B and operating income improving; guidance signaled continued mid-20% growth cadence in the near term with emphasis on merchant solutions and payments. Shopify reiterated product investment to expand merchant lifetime value. (s27.q4cdn.com)
eBay (Q2 2025) highlights
- Net revenues: $2.7B (+6% as-reported). GMV: $19.5B. eBay emphasized marketplace revenue growth and ads/managed services improvement; management hosted an investor call to outline cadence and re-acceleration opportunities. (investors.ebayinc.com)
Guidance notes across the three companies emphasize execution: Amazon on AI and fulfillment economics; Shopify on merchant retention and payments margins; eBay on take-rate and marketplace engagement. (s2.q4cdn.com)
Strategic moves, catalysts and risks (from filings and releases)
Amazon — strategic priorities & risks
- Catalysts: AI investments (Anthropic deal and internal AI stack), AWS revenue expansion, Prime/fulfillment efficiency and international growth. (Reuters)
- Risks: heavy capital spend for AI/data centers and logistics increases fixed costs; retail margin pressure from tariffs, promotions and pricing competition; regulatory/antitrust scrutiny. (s2.q4cdn.com)
Shopify — strategic priorities & risks
- Catalysts: merchant solutions (Payments, Shipping, Capital), product expansions to increase take rates, and sustained GMV growth. Shopify points to durable FCF margins and product roadmap as de-risking the platform. (s27.q4cdn.com)
- Risks: merchant concentration, cross-border trade friction (tariffs) and competitive pressure from marketplaces that reduce merchant reliance on hosted platforms. (Investors)
eBay — strategic priorities & risks
- Catalysts: marketplace take-rate improvement, advertising product rollouts and buyer/seller engagement initiatives. (investors.ebayinc.com)
- Risks: GMV sensitivity to consumer discretionary spending and competition from larger marketplaces, plus the need to maintain seller economics. (investors.ebayinc.com)
Cross-platform risk: macro consumer spend, global trade policy (tariffs), and logistics cost inflation remain common headwinds. (Investopedia)
Valuation and technical considerations
Valuation posture
- Amazon: mega-cap priced for AWS durability and AI optionality — market cap ≈ $2.3–2.35T in late-Sep 2025; forward multiples reflect sizeable AWS contribution.
- Shopify: market cap ≈ $187–193B (late-Sep 2025); EV/Revenue and P/S multiples are elevated versus general retailers because investors price recurring merchant revenue and growth optionality.
- eBay: market cap ≈ $42–43B; trades at materially lower multiples consistent with a mature marketplace and lower growth profile.
Technical / timing considerations
- Technical indicators are mixed across vendors: short-term RSI/MACD readings vary; Shopify shows relative momentum but also signals of consolidation on some moving-average screens; Amazon’s price action reflects market rotation into or out of mega-caps depending on AI narratives. Use technicals only for timing against a fundamentally driven thesis. (Investing.com)
Bottom-line synthesis
- Different models, overlapping markets. Amazon wins on assortment, fulfillment and scale — its AWS profit engine funds strategic investments (AI, logistics). Shopify wins by empowering merchants with high-margin SaaS and payments economics; growth shows high incremental leverage. eBay wins in reuse/collectibles and steady marketplace economics with upside from ad/take-rate improvements. (s2.q4cdn.com)
- Who to favor by objective:
- Scale + diversified profit engine: Amazon (if you believe AWS + AI monetization continue). (s2.q4cdn.com)
- High-growth merchant SaaS + payments optionality: Shopify (if merchant economics and GMV sustain). (s27.q4cdn.com)
- Stable cash flow + marketplace take-rate upside: eBay (if GMV and ads re-accelerate). (investors.ebayinc.com)
- Shared vulnerabilities: macro consumer demand, tariffs and logistics cost pressure; all three require execution on product/merchant/advertiser experiences to maintain pricing power. (Investopedia)
- Practical stance: treat Amazon as a strategic core/mega-cap with AI optionality, Shopify as a growth-platform with operational cadence to monitor (MRR, payments, merchant retention), and eBay as a value/momentum play tied to marketplace recovery and ad monetization.
