September 27, 2025
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Deep Dive: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — Fundamentals, Momentum, Risk Signals

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Short verdict (screen fit)

  • Revenue growth (YoY): Pass — +56% in the most recent quarter. (NVIDIA Newsroom)
  • EPS growth (YoY): Pass — adjusted EPS materially higher YoY; beat consensus. (Investopedia)
  • Gross margin: Pass — GAAP/non-GAAP gross margin in the low-to-mid 70s. (NVIDIA Newsroom)
  • Debt-to-equity: Pass — very low (D/E ≈ 0.08–0.10). (Makrotrendek)
  • Trading above 50-day & 200-day SMAs: At/around 50-day; firmly above 200-day. (price ≈ $176–$180 vs 50-day ≈ $176 and 200-day ≈ $141). (GuruFocus)
  • RSI 14 (daily): ~51–53 (neutral) — currently outside the 55–70 band. (GuruFocus)
  • MACD vs signal (daily): mixed-to-bullish (MACD above signal on many providers, histogram oscillating). (TradingView)
  • 1-month return vs Nasdaq: Underperformed. NVDA 1-month ~flat/negative vs Nasdaq Composite ~+3% (market snapshot). (TradingView)
  • Average daily dollar volume: Well above $20M (avg volume ≈ 170–190M shares; dollar volume >> $20M). (Yahoo Finance)

Conclusion: NVIDIA satisfies the core fundamental filters (growth, margin, leverage). It does not satisfy the RSI 55–70 requirement at this snapshot and has recently underperformed the Nasdaq over the prior 30 days — momentum reads are neutral-to-bullish but fragile. (NVIDIA Newsroom)

1) Summary fundamentals (latest reported quarter / TTM)

  • Quarter revenue: $46.7 billion (Q2 FY2026, quarter ended July 27, 2025) — +56% YoY. (NVIDIA Newsroom)
  • Adjusted EPS: Beat; adjusted EPS grew materially YoY (company reported EPS beats; adjusted EPS ~ $1.04–$1.08 range reported by outlets). (Investopedia)
  • Gross margin (GAAP/non-GAAP): ~72% (GAAP ~72.4%; non-GAAP ~72.7%); guidance for next quarter ~73.3–73.5%. (NVIDIA Newsroom)
  • Debt / long-term debt: Long-term debt ~$8.46B; total debt claims ~$10.6B on some compilers. Debt-to-equity ≈ 0.08. (NVIDIA Newsroom)
  • Market cap: ≈ $4.3–4.5 trillion (intraday snapshots vary). (Yahoo Finance)
  • Valuation (snapshot): Trailing P/E ≈ ~50–52x; forward P/E ≈ ~30–40x depending on provider; P/S and other multiples skew high versus long-run averages. (StockAnalysis)

2) Detailed fundamental breakdown (metrics & multiples)

  • Revenue growth (most recent quarter): +56% YoY; Data Center ≈ $41.1B (+56% YoY), Blackwell sequential growth +17%. (NVIDIA Newsroom)
  • EPS growth (YoY): Adjusted EPS up roughly ~50%+ YoY (varies by GAAP vs non-GAAP; company reported large net income increase). (Investopedia)
  • Gross margin profile: GAAP gross margin ~72.4%; company expects mid-70s for full year. High margin reflects software/firmware/IP leverage and premium silicon pricing. (NVIDIA Newsroom)
  • Balance sheet / leverage: Cash and marketable securities large (cash ≈ >$50B by some compilers), long-term debt ≈ $8.46B → net cash / low leverage, D/E ≈ 0.08. (Simply Wall St)
  • Valuation multiples (selected providers):
    • Trailing P/E ≈ 50–52x. (GuruFocus)
    • Forward P/E ≈ ~31–39x (provider variance). (GuruFocus)
    • Price/Sales (ttm) and EV/S are elevated vs long-run semiconductor norms. (StockAnalysis)

3) Momentum, technicals and liquidity

  • Price level: Intraday range ~$173–183 in recent sessions; close around $176–178 at time of snapshot. (Investing.com)
  • 50-day SMA: ≈ $176.3. 200-day SMA: ≈ $141.4. Price is effectively at or slightly above the 50-day and well above the 200-day — long-term trend intact; short-term momentum mixed. (GuruFocus)
  • RSI (14-day daily): ~51–53 (neutral, below the 55–70 band required in the Profit Pencil screen). (GuruFocus)
  • MACD (daily): MACD line above the signal line on several technical feeds (bullish signal), but histogram shows oscillation — momentum is not decisively trending higher. (TradingView)
  • 1-month relative performance vs Nasdaq Composite: NVDA underperformed the Nasdaq over the last month (NVDA roughly flat/negative vs Nasdaq ≈ +3% 1-month). (TradingView)
  • Average daily volume (shares & dollar): Avg vol (3-month) ≈ 170–190M shares; dollar volume >> $20M. Liquidity is extremely high. (Yahoo Finance)

4) Comparison vs three closest public peers (snapshot metrics)

Sources below compare NVDA → AMD, Broadcom (AVGO), Intel (INTC). Figures are pulled from each company’s latest public quarter and market data.

Snapshot table (key line items; rounded)

Interpretation: NVDA outpaces peers on data-center revenue growth and maintains superior gross margins. Broadcom posts comparable or higher consolidated margins (product mix difference). AMD is the clearest growth peer but with materially lower margins and recent export-charge noise. Intel is structurally different (foundry reset, lower margins). (NVIDIA Newsroom)

5) Recent earnings (Q2 FY2026) — call highlights and management guidance (concise)

  • Record quarter: Revenue $46.7B (+56% YoY); Data Center $41.1B (+56% YoY). Net income and adjusted EPS rose significantly. Board authorized an additional $60 billion share repurchase. (NVIDIA Newsroom)
  • Guidance: Q3 revenue guided to $54 billion ±2% (guidance excludes potential incremental H20 sales to China under export-license arrangements). Gross margin guidance ~73.3–73.5% (non-GAAP); operating expense guidance and full-year gross margin guidance mid-70s. (Investopedia)
  • Key management commentary: Jensen Huang emphasized sustained demand for Blackwell/GB300 and AI infrastructure; CFO Colette Kress quantified that H20 China resumption could add $2–$5B (range discussed) if licensing cleared, but the company excluded that from guidance pending formal approval; management reaffirmed Blackwell roadmap and cited new product ramps (GB300, Rubin pipeline). (GuruFocus)
  • One-time / discrete items noted: A $180M release of previously reserved H20 inventory (and other H20 sale accounting notes) affected the quarter; data-center revenue slightly missed some Street projections despite an overall beat. (NVIDIA Newsroom)

6) Main risk factors (from latest Form 10-Q / investor materials; paraphrased)

Primary risk language and emphasis in NVIDIA’s Q2 FY2026 filings and 10-Q: (s201.q4cdn.com)

  1. Export controls & geopolitical restrictions (China exposure): U.S. export rules for advanced AI chips (H20/Blackwell family) create material uncertainty; restrictions can reduce near-term addressable market and force revenue sharing or license contingencies. (Financial Times)
  2. Customer concentration / hyperscaler dependence: Large portion of revenue is from a small set of hyperscalers; swings in capex or procurement patterns at those customers materially move NVIDIA’s revenue. (s201.q4cdn.com)
  3. Supply chain / foundry concentration: Heavy reliance on third-party foundries (TSMC) and supply-chain partners — capacity constraints, lead-time issues, or geopolitical disruptions could impair delivery. (s201.q4cdn.com)
  4. Competition & rapid innovation risk: Rival silicon (AMD, Broadcom, custom accelerators) and hyperscaler in-house designs could erode margins/market share; product obsolescence risk is non-trivial. (s201.q4cdn.com)
  5. Regulatory / trade / national security: Government interventions, licensing regimes, and revenue-sharing deals (recently reported) create legal & policy uncertainty. (Financial Times)
  6. Intellectual property / litigation / cybersecurity: Patent/IP disputes, product liability, or breaches could be costly. (s201.q4cdn.com)
  7. Valuation & market sentiment risk: Elevated multiples expose shares to sharp drawdowns if growth expectations slip. Market reaction after the Q2 release (minor drop despite beat) highlights this sensitivity. (Investopedia)

7) Investment catalysts and near-term monitoring checklist

(black-box checklist for monitoring NVDA after reading earnings & filings)

  • Catalysts: Blackwell production ramps (GB300), Rubin roadmap milestones, formal China export licensing or revenue pickup, large hyperscaler capacity commitments (e.g., announced OpenAI/Oracle/others), further buyback execution. (news.futunn.com)
  • Watch-items: (1) H20 export resolution and any realized revenues in China; (2) Q3 revenue execution vs $54B guidance; (3) Data-center backlog indicators and hyperscaler commentary; (4) margin guidance vs realized gross margin; (5) short-term technicals — close relative to 50-day and RSI re-entering 55–70 band for momentum confirmation. (Investopedia)

8) Quick comparative narrative (NVDA vs AMD / AVGO / INTC)

  • NVDA vs AMD: NVDA leads on gross margin and absolute data-center revenue; AMD shows strong revenue growth but lower margins and recent export charges; AMD is the closest competitor for GPU/accelerator market share but lags NVDA on scale. (NVIDIA Newsroom)
  • NVDA vs Broadcom: Broadcom posts comparable consolidated margins but different business mix (connectivity, silicon systems, software) and larger acquisition footprint; Broadcom is scaling AI exposure rapidly but on a smaller absolute data-center GPU base. (Investing.com)
  • NVDA vs Intel: Intel is rebuilding; revenue scale differs and margins are lower; Intel’s foundry / X86 positioning and recent capital/strategic moves give it a different risk/return profile. NVDA remains the higher-margin pure AI accelerator leader. (intc.com)

9) Nutshell risk-adjusted thesis (one paragraph)

NVIDIA is the dominant supplier of AI training/inference accelerators with record revenue and exceptional gross margins; the company’s balance sheet, product roadmap (Blackwell/GB300), and enormous buyback program support both operating resilience and shareholder returns. Material risks centralize on geopolitics (China export rules), hyperscaler concentration and the market’s willingness to sustain very high multiples. Technicals are neutral-to-bullish, but price momentum and short-term relative strength have softened: NVDA passes Profit Pencil’s fundamental filters today but fails the RSI (55–70) and 1-month outperformance checks at the snapshot. (NVIDIA Newsroom)

10) Source vault (representative; read before trading)

  • NVIDIA Q2 FY2026 press release (Aug 26/27, 2025). (NVIDIA Newsroom)
  • NVIDIA Q2 FY2026 CFO commentary & 10-Q (Form 10-Q, Aug 27, 2025). (s201.q4cdn.com)
  • Earnings call transcripts and coverage (Investopedia, GuruFocus, MarketScreener, Yahoo). (Investopedia)
  • Technical snapshots: TradingView, Barchart, GuruFocus (RSI / 50/200 SMA). (TradingView)
  • Peer filings: AMD Q2 2025 release; Broadcom Q3 2025; Intel Q2 2025. (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.)
  • Market commentary (FT, Barron’s, Reuters) on geopolitical and market reaction. (Financial Times)

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