Deep Dive: Rigetti Computing (RGTI) – Quantum Computing’s Commercial Path in 2026

Executive summary

Rigetti reported Q2 2025 revenue of $1.8m and a net loss of $39.7m, while completing an equity raise that brought cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments to ~$571.6m and left the company with no outstanding debt at quarter-end. Management pushed product milestones (general availability of a 36-qubit multi-chip system and a stated plan to deliver a 100+-qubit chiplet system with targeted two-qubit fidelities before year-end 2025) and signaled continued R&D investment backed by fresh capital and a strategic collaboration with Quanta. The company is revenue-light and loss-making today; market pricing reflects investor appetite for technical milestones and optionality rather than current commercial revenue. (GlobeNewswire)

Fundamental metrics

Revenue growth and run rate

• Q2 2025 GAAP revenue: $1.8m (down y/y from Q2 2024). Trailing-12-month revenue reported by public data aggregators: ~$7.9m TTM. Rigetti’s revenue pattern is “lumpy” (government and milestone payments dominate), so sequential/annual growth is not smooth. (GlobeNewswire)

Profitability and margins

• Q2 2025 GAAP net loss: $39.7m (includes ~$22.8m non-cash fair-value changes on derivative/earn-out liabilities). Operating losses remain sizable versus revenue, reflecting R&D and scale-up costs. There is no meaningful positive gross-to-net margin today because revenue base is tiny. (GlobeNewswire)

EPS trend

• GAAP EPS is negative on a trailing basis. Reported per-share results in 2025 quarters have been distorted by non-cash warrant/earn-out remeasurements; adjusted non-GAAP metrics have occasionally shown smaller losses but GAAP remains loss-making. (GlobeNewswire)

Leverage / balance sheet

• Liquidity position as of June 30, 2025: ~$571.6m of cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale investments after a $350m at-the-market equity program; no debt reported at quarter-end. Total stockholders’ equity reported in the 10-Q: ~$553.3m (in thousands in the filing; see consolidated balance sheet). Debt/equity = 0 at that date. (GlobeNewswire)

Valuation multiples (market pricing context)

• Market capitalization and enterprise-value snapshots (Sept 25, 2025): Market cap ≈ $10.4B; EV ≈ $9.99B (public market pages). Using the TTM revenue figure listed above (~$7.9m), implied multiples are extreme: EV / Revenue ≈ 1,260×; Market cap / Revenue ≈ 1,313×. The market is valuing future optionality and technical milestones, not current revenue or earnings. (Arithmetic based on market data and reported TTM revenue.) (Yahoo Finance)

Momentum indicators (price & technicals)

• RSI (14): widely reported as very high/overbought (examples show RSI in the high 80s), indicating strong recent price momentum and short-term overbought readings. MACD: positive on most short-term screens (recent MACD cross turned positive in mid-September). Moving averages: recent price sits well above the 50- and 200-day SMAs (multiple technical providers show price > MA50 and MA200). Volatility is high and short interest has been sizeable in recent snapshots. The technical picture is momentum-driven, not fundamentals-driven. (ChartMill)
• Relative strength vs. Nasdaq: RGTI has far outperformed major indices in 2025 YTD (examples report YTD gains ≫ Nasdaq/S&P), driven by milestone news and retail/institutional flows; this raises event-risk if subsequent technical milestones or funding optics disappoint. (Yahoo Finance)

Peer comparison (closest public comparators)

Selection: public firms with quantum hardware/cloud offerings.

IonQ (IONQ) — trapped-ion quantum systems

• Q2 2025 revenue: ~$20.7m (beat guidance); management issued FY-2025 revenue guidance materially above 2024 levels and continues to invest in networking/sensing acquisitions — revenue scale at IonQ is already multiples of Rigetti’s, though IonQ remains loss-making overall. Use IonQ as a comparator for commercial QCaaS traction and near-term revenue scale. (IonQ Investors)

D-Wave (QBTS) — annealing / hybrid quantum systems

• Q2 fiscal 2025 revenue: ~$3.1m (y/y growth reported), also loss-making but showing sequential improvements in bookings and cash reserves. D-Wave’s hardware and software stack (quantum annealing + hybrid services) is a different technical approach; use it to benchmark revenue progress and commercialization cadence in the public quantum cohort. (D-Wave Quantum)

Takeaway: Rigetti is smaller in commercial revenue than IonQ and similar in order-of-magnitude to D-Wave’s quarterly results, but differs in modality (superconducting chiplets) and in the current balance-sheet position (Rigetti entered H2 2025 with a large cash cushion). (GlobeNewswire)

Most recent earnings highlights and management guidance (Q2 2025)

• Q2 2025 reported results (summary): revenue $1.8m; operating loss ~$19.9m; net loss $39.7m (includes a ~$22.8m non-cash warrant/earn-out charge). Rigetti described revenue volatility tied to milestone-based government and partner contracts. (GlobeNewswire)
• Liquidity & capital actions: completed $350m ATM equity program in Q2; cash + short-term investments ≈ $571.6m as of June 30, 2025; management reports “no debt” at quarter-end. (GlobeNewswire)
• Product roadmap / guidance: announced general availability of a 36-qubit multi-chip quantum computer and reiterated plans to deliver a 100+-qubit chiplet-based system with targeted ~99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity before the end of 2025. That roadmap is the company’s near-term “commercial” signal to customers and investors. The company did not give materially large near-term revenue guidance; the emphasis is on technical milestones and scaling. (GlobeNewswire)

Strategic moves, catalysts, and risks (from filings and investor materials)

Strategic moves / catalysts

• Chiplet scaling roadmap: Rigetti’s announced multi-chip approach (36-qubit GA and 100+-qubit target) is the explicit technical path the company expects to use to scale qubit count while improving fidelity; management frames high-fidelity two-qubit gates + chiplet count as the route to useful workloads. (GlobeNewswire)
• Capital and industrial partnership: Rigetti closed a meaningful equity raise in Q2 and disclosed a collaboration with Quanta (including investment commitments and board/observer arrangements), intended to accelerate manufacturing, personnel and capital allocations for product scale-up. That partnership materially changes funding runway assumptions. (SEC)
• Commercial positioning: ramping availability of larger QPUs (on cloud platforms) and QCaaS packaging for government, research and early commercial customers are the near-term commercial plays. Progress on benchmarks, system availability and fidelity will be the triggers investors watch. (GlobeNewswire)

Material risks (from the 10-Q and investor materials)

• Revenue concentration and lumpiness: revenue depends on milestone payments and government contracts; that creates quarter-to-quarter volatility and uncertainty in forecasting. (SEC)
• Execution risk on scaling and error rates: moving from 36 to 100+ qubits while achieving the claimed fidelity targets is technically hard; failure or delay would damage the commercial thesis. (GlobeNewswire)
• Warrant/derivative accounting and balance-sheet noise: non-cash remeasurements (warrant and earn-out liabilities) have produced significant headline volatility in net income. (SEC)
• Capital needs if timelines slip: though cash is strong today, extended timelines or higher operating costs could require additional financing; the company discloses this dependency explicitly. (SEC)

Valuation and technical considerations — integration

Valuation synopsis

• Market pricing (Sept 2025) values Rigetti at ~$10.4B market cap / ~$9.99B EV despite ~$7.9m TTM revenue, implying EV/Revenue ~1,260×. That multiple is far outside normal tech multiples and signals the market is buying optionality (future profitable QCaaS, IP, manufacturing upside, network effects) rather than current fundamentals. The disconnect is a direct function of tiny revenue base + big, visible technical milestones and a strong cash runway (post-raise). (Yahoo Finance)

Balance-sheet lens

• Cash cushion (~$571.6m) plus no debt gives management runway to pursue the 100+-qubit roadmap without immediate refinancing pressure. That reduces short-term solvency risk, but does not eliminate execution risk or long-term capital intensity if commercial monetization lags. (GlobeNewswire)

Technical/market risk premium

• The stock’s momentum metrics (very high RSI, MACD recently positive, price > MA50/MA200) indicate hot sentiment. Price action can decouple from fundamentals quickly in this sector — technical progress or a single large government/commercial contract could extend the rally, while delays or accounting noise could trigger rapid selloffs. (ChartMill)

Bottom-line synthesis (what to watch for into 2026)

1. Milestone delivery is the proximate driver. The near-term commercial thesis hinges on hardware milestones (delivery and demonstrated fidelity of 100+ qubit systems) and meaningful cloud availability for paying customers. Successful, demonstrable runs on useful workloads would materially de-risk the narrative; delays would re-price the company sharply. (GlobeNewswire)
2. Cash runway reduces near-term solvency risk but not execution risk. The Q2 equity raise and Quanta collaboration give time and manufacturing optionality. That cash buffer buys technical runway but does not guarantee demand or margin expansion in 2026. (GlobeNewswire)
3. Market pricing is forward-option heavy. Valuation multiples (EV/Revenue ≈ 1,260×) are premised on large future addressable markets and successful commercialization. Investors are effectively betting on a multi-year technical and commercial delivery; that is a binary, high-variance outcome. (Yahoo Finance)
4. Peers provide alternative commercialization paths. IonQ’s larger revenue base and D-Wave’s hybrid approach show multiple commercial pathways in quantum computing; Rigetti must translate its chiplet roadmap and fidelity claims into repeatable customer outcomes to remain competitive into 2026. (IonQ Investors)

Net assessment: Rigetti enters 2026 with technical momentum, a meaningful cash runway and an explicit scaling plan (36Q, then 100+Q). Commercial revenue remains small and lumpy; the stock trades as a milestone/optional-value play. The investment case for 2026 reduces to a short list of binary events: (A) on-time delivery of the 100+-qubit roadmap with fidelity improvements and demonstrable workloads, and (B) early customer/partner monetization at scale. Both are necessary to justify current market pricing; failure or delays will re-test valuation and trigger high volatility. (GlobeNewswire)