Executive summary
- Shopify outpaced BigCommerce on scale: Q2 revenue $2.68B, +31% YoY, strong GMV growth, signaling platform-scale advantages; Shopify vs BigCommerce 2025 comparison highlights market-share and margin differences.
- BigCommerce (rebranded Commerce) is improving profitability: Q2 revenue $84.4M, +3% YoY, non-GAAP gross margin ~80% and positive non-GAAP operating income, indicating an enterprise-focused margin recovery.
- Wix (peer) shows robust middle-market growth and cash profitability: Q2 revenue $489.9M, GAAP net income $57.7M, gross margin ~69%, providing a profitable alternative to pure-play platforms.
- Tactical verdict (one sentence): Shopify scales faster with higher top-line growth but higher market multiple and execution sensitivity; BigCommerce offers margin improvement and smaller capitalization with binary upside, consistent with the Shopify vs BigCommerce 2025 comparison.
Summary fundamentals
Shopify (SHOP)
- Latest quarter revenue: $2,680 million.
- YoY revenue %: +31%.
- Latest quarter EPS (GAAP): net income $906 million (GAAP), reported EPS referenced in coverage as $0.70 per share.
- YoY EPS %: net income rose from $171M to $906M (nominal >+400% year-over-year).
- Gross margin % (quarter): 48.5% (gross profit $1,302M / revenue $2,680M).
- Debt-to-equity (most recent quarter): 0.09–0.20 (reported range by public filings/aggregators; Shopify shows low leverage).
- Market cap (approx): $180–195B (September 2025 market-cap snapshots).
BigCommerce / Commerce (BIGC)
- Latest quarter revenue: $84.4 million.
- YoY revenue %: +3%.
- Latest quarter EPS (GAAP): basic net loss per share ($0.10).
- YoY EPS %: improved GAAP net loss from prior year quarter; non-GAAP net income positive.
- Gross margin % (non-GAAP): ~80% reported non-GAAP gross margin.
- Debt-to-equity / net debt: net debt reported small (~$18M), cash ~$136M; leverage minimal.
- Market cap (approx): $0.38–0.40B.
Wix (WIX) – public peer for platform comparison
- Latest quarter revenue: $489.9 million.
- YoY revenue %: +12% year-over-year.
- Latest quarter EPS (GAAP): $1.03 per basic share; net income $57.7M.
- YoY EPS %: GAAP net income +46% YoY.
- Gross margin % (GAAP): 69% total gross margin; creative subscriptions margin 84%.
- Debt-to-equity: company-level metrics vary by source; Wix shows modest leverage or negative book equity in some balance-sheet snapshots – treat as company-specific reporting nuance.
- Market cap (approx): $9.6–10.3B.
Detailed fundamental analysis
Revenue trends and TAM dynamics
Shopify’s Q2 result continues an acceleration in revenue and GMV driven by Merchant Solutions and international expansion; GMV rose to $87.8B, demonstrating network effects and larger average merchant transaction sizes versus smaller platforms. Revenue mix shifts toward Merchant Solutions (payments, fulfillment, value-added services) explain higher revenue capture per GMV.
BigCommerce’s growth is stable but single-digit – the company’s rebranding to Commerce, push into enterprise ARPA expansion, and improved enterprise bookings underpin modest revenue growth while delivering margin expansion as fixed costs scale down. ARR approaching ~$355M suggests scale in recurring revenue but still far below Shopify’s scale.
Wix shows mid-single-digit to low-teens growth driven by subscriptions, Partner/creative services, and acquisitions (Base44) that extend addressable market into application development and higher-value customers. This positions Wix as a profitable middle-market alternative with predictable subscription revenue.
Margin drivers
- Shopify: merchant solutions margins are lower on revenue-weighted basis due to payments and fulfillment costs, but subscription margins are high; scale and higher GMV lift operating leverage; free cash flow margin maintained at ~16%.
- BigCommerce: non-GAAP gross margin improvement to ~80% reflects product mix and cost discipline; enterprise ARPA lift improves fixed-cost absorption.
- Wix: subscription-heavy mix yields higher overall gross margin (69% GAAP) and positive net income; acquisition of Base44 aims to raise long-term ARPU.
Balance-sheet strength
- Shopify holds sizeable cash & marketable securities (~$5.82B combined) and loans/merchant advances on the asset side; convertible notes ~$919M are on the liability side but overall shareholders’ equity ~$12.1B presents a low debt/equity ratio and strong liquidity.
- BigCommerce reports cash ~$136M and net debt ~ $18M, with operating cash flow improving; liquidity is modest but sufficient for targeted growth initiatives.
- Wix: positive GAAP earnings and significant market cap support acquisition financing and share-repurchase optionality; balance-sheet shows cash and debt items with mixed reporting across sources.
Valuation multiples (trailing/forward)
- Shopify: market capitalization ~ $185–195B; TTM P/E and forward P/E vary with non-GAAP adjustments, with some sources reporting a high trailing P/E driven by recent EPS improvement; typical EV/Revenue in growth software ranges 20x+ for companies of Shopify’s scale during strong growth periods.
- BigCommerce: no meaningful positive TTM P/E (loss-making GAAP), EV/Revenue materially lower given sub-$1B market cap and $84M quarterly revenue – enterprise multiple typically single-digit to low-teens depending on growth.
- Wix: positive GAAP earnings produce a high but finite P/E (sources show elevated P/E 50–70+ depending on trailing/forward), EV/Revenue mid-single digits given $2B annual revenue run-rate.
Momentum & technical snapshot
Numeric technicals are time-sensitive; below are recent published indicator snapshots and average trading liquidity.
Shopify (SHOP)
- RSI(14): ~56–59.
- MACD status: MACD positive vs signal (mixed short-term signals across providers; currently near neutral-to-positive).
- 50d & 200d SMA positions: 50d around $148–152, 200d lower – trend shows medium-term uptrend.
- 1-month return vs Nasdaq: Shopify outperformed Nasdaq in the latest 1-month window during Q2 beat-driven rallies; specific relative performance varies day-to-day.
- Average daily dollar volume: average volume ~7.5M shares (3-month), price ~$148–150 → avg daily dollar volume ≈ $1.1B.
BigCommerce (BIGC)
- RSI(14): ~50 (neutral).
- MACD status: MACD roughly at signal (no strong momentum).
- 50d & 200d SMA positions: 50d ~ $4.8, 200d ~ $5.7 – price hovering near 50d.
- 1-month return vs Nasdaq: underperformance vs Nasdaq in recent month (small-cap weakness).
- Average daily dollar volume: avg vol ~0.84M shares (3-month) × price ~$5 → ≈ $4–5M/day.
Wix (WIX)
- RSI(14): ~52–64 depending on provider (neutral–moderately bullish).
- MACD status: mixed; some services show MACD slightly negative.
- 50d & 200d SMA positions: 50d and 200d in an upward alignment supporting medium-term uptrend.
- 1-month return vs Nasdaq: outperformance in recent months tied to earnings beats.
- Average daily dollar volume: avg vol ~2.1M × price ~$180 → ≈ $360M/day.
Peer comparison
Comparison across growth, margins, leverage, forward P/E (select data points):
- Shopify Inc. (scale leader): revenue growth 31% (Q2), gross margin ~48.5%, low debt/equity ~0.09–0.20, forward P/E elevated by high growth expectations.
- BigCommerce Holdings / Commerce.com (SMB/enterprise pivot): revenue growth 3%, non-GAAP gross margin ~80%, minimal net debt, no attractive P/E due to GAAP loss.
- Wix.com Ltd. (mixed-model competitor): revenue growth 12%, gross margin 69%, GAAP profitability (EPS $1.03), mid-cap valuation (market cap ~$9.6–10B).
Latest earnings highlights & management guidance
Shopify Q2 highlights (verbatim takeaways ≤25 words each)
- “Revenue to grow at a mid-to-high twenties percentage rate for Q3.”
- “Operating expense as a percentage of revenue to be 38% to 39%.”
BigCommerce Q2 highlights
- “Full-year 2025 revenue guidance $339.6M–$346.6M; non-GAAP operating income $19M–$25M.”
Wix Q2 highlights
- “Q2 bookings +11% and Base44 acquisition on track to $40–50M ARR by year-end.”
Strategic moves, catalysts & risks
- Shopify catalysts: expansion of Merchant Solutions, AI tools for merchants, European GMV acceleration; risks include trade-policy changes (de-minimis) and merchant volume sensitivity.
- BigCommerce catalysts: rebranding to Commerce, enterprise ARPA growth, margin improvement; risks include slower merchant acquisition and limited balance-sheet scale.
- Wix catalysts: Base44 acquisition, Studio and AI products; risks include integration execution and exposure to price-sensitivity in creative subscriptions.
Regulatory / macro risks for all platform providers: cross-border trade policy shifts, payments/regulatory changes, and interest-rate driven multiples compression.
Valuation & scenario analysis
Method: use revenue multiples (EV/Revenue) and P/E when earnings positive. Base inputs anchored to Q2 results and current market caps; targets derived via multiple compression/expansion relative to peers.
Shopify (SHOP)
- Conservative: assume 20% CAGR revenue next 3 years, multiple contracts to 10x EV/Rev → implied value ≈ $95–120B (price range ~ $78–100). Assumption: growth slows, multiple compression.
- Base: assume 25% CAGR, 15x EV/Rev → implied value ≈ $150–190B (price target ~$120–170). Assumption: steady Merchant Solutions monetization and margin recovery.
- Optimistic: assume 30%+ CAGR, 20x EV/Rev → implied value ≈ $240B+ (price target ~ $200+). Assumption: sustained GMV expansion and multiple expansion for platform dominance.
BigCommerce (BIGC)
- Conservative: assume low-single-digit revenue growth, 1–2x EV/Rev → implied market cap ~ $350–700M (price floor ~ current). Assumption: limited upside without scale.
- Base: assume 8–12% growth and 3–4x EV/Rev (enterprise premium) → implied market cap ~$1.0–1.4B (price target 2–3x current). Assumption: enterprise traction continues.
- Optimistic: assume 15%+ growth, 6x EV/Rev → implied market cap ≈ $2.0B+ (price target material upside). Assumption: successful repositioning and margin expansion.
Wix (WIX)
- Conservative: assume 8% CAGR, 4x EV/Rev → implied valuation lower end.
- Base: 12% CAGR, 6–8x EV/Rev → mid-cap fair value consistent with current price.
- Optimistic: 15%+ CAGR, 10x EV/Rev → premium multiple if Studio/Base44 convert to high ARPU offerings.
Trading checklist & signals
Momentum trader – Shopify
- Entry: price breaks and closes above 50d SMA with RSI rising toward 60 and MACD crossing above signal on daily. Confirm with above-average volume (3m avg).
- Stop: 5–8% below entry or below 50d SMA depending on volatility.
- Target: scale out at resistance zones or when MACD momentum decays; tighten stops at trendline breaks.
Swing / small-cap trader – BigCommerce
- Entry: wait for RSI confirmation above 50 and rising non-GAAP operating income beats or guidance raise. Confirm with volume spike > 1.5x average.
- Stop: 10% below entry or below 50d SMA.
- Target: partial exits at 50% and 100% gains; use trailing stop to capture extended moves.
Longer-term investor checklist (Shopify vs BigCommerce 2025 comparison lens)
- Confirm durable revenue growth (Shopify: >20% CAGR; BigCommerce: accelerating ARR and enterprise ARPA).
- Margin trajectory: subscription/merchant solution margins improving and free cash flow positive trend.
- Balance-sheet health: adequate cash to fund operations and M&A without dilutive capital raises.
- Valuation discipline: entry when expected growth justifies current multiple; avoid paying premium where growth deceleration risk exists.
