Executive summary
- Supermicro leads in GPU-optimized product breadth and rapid Blackwell-era shipments but shows compressed non-GAAP gross margins and high revenue volatility; revenue: $5.8B in Q4FY25; non-GAAP gross margin 9.6%.
- Dell shows scale in AI systems with record ISG / Servers & Networking revenue growth (Servers & Networking +69% YoY) and stronger profitability metrics; Q2 FY26 revenue $29.8B, diluted EPS $1.70.
- HPE delivers stable enterprise margins and strategic networking expansion via the Juniper acquisition; Q3 FY25 revenue $9.1B, gross margin ~29.2% and acquisition adds one month of Juniper results.
- Verdict: Supermicro vs Dell vs HPE ai servers 2025 – Supermicro is highest growth/highest operational leverage (highest beta), Dell is best near-term AI revenue engine and cash generator, HPE is the most defensible enterprise networking+AI-integrated platform. Use position sizing to reflect differing margin and execution risk profiles.
Summary fundamentals
Supermicro (quarter = Q4 FY2025 ended June 30, 2025)
- Latest quarter revenue: $5.8 billion.
- YoY revenue % (quarter): ≈ +7% vs prior-year quarter.
- Latest quarter non-GAAP diluted EPS: $0.41; YoY EPS %: down materially from $6.25 prior-year quarter (non-GAAP), reflecting share-count and adjustment differences.
- Non-GAAP gross margin (Q4): 9.6%; FY non-GAAP gross margin: 11.2%.
- Debt-to-equity: ~0.75 (total bank debt + convertibles $4.8B vs equity base; see filings).
- Market cap: ~$27–28B.
Dell Technologies (quarter = Q2 FY2026 ended August 1, 2025)
- Latest quarter revenue: $29.8 billion (record).
- YoY revenue % (quarter): +19%.
- Diluted EPS (GAAP): $1.70; YoY EPS %: +38%.
- Gross margin (company TTM/quarteral context): ~18–19% (data center/server mix reduces blended gross margin vs pure-software peers).
- Debt-to-equity: negative or atypical due to Dell capital structure/levered balance sheet treatment; balance-sheet leverage is material (enterprise debt sizable).
- Market cap: ≈ $88–90B.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (quarter = Q3 FY2025 ended July 31, 2025)
- Latest quarter revenue: $9.1 billion, +18–19% YoY.
- Latest quarter EPS (GAAP): $0.21; non-GAAP EPS: $0.44.
- Gross margin (GAAP): 29.2% (non-GAAP ~29.9%).
- Debt-to-equity: ~1.0 (post-Juniper acquisition leverage); enterprise value increased with acquisition.
- Market cap: ≈ $31–32B.
Detailed fundamental analysis
Revenue trends and product mix
- Supermicro: revenue ramp through FY2025 was driven by GPU-server demand and hyperscaler orders but Q4 reveals margin compression driven by component cost, warranty/servicing and mix shifts to lower-margin OEM builds; FY25 net sales $22.0B vs $15.0B prior year. Growth is customer-timing dependent and concentrated among hyperscale accounts.
- Dell: revenue is broad-based-Servers & Networking is the primary AI engine (Servers & Networking revenue $12.9B, +69% YoY) while Client and Storage remain material; scale benefits have improved operating cash flows and enabled shareholder returns. Dell explicitly calls out $10B shipped in AI solutions in H1 FY26 and raised AI server shipment guidance.
- HPE: enterprise-oriented revenue with a meaningful services and recurring software mix; Juniper acquisition instantly doubles networking capability and adds recurring software/IP; HPE’s revenue growth is steadier, with higher gross margin profile than pure OEMs.
Margin drivers and operating leverage
- Supermicro’s non-GAAP gross margins (9.6% quarterly; 11.2% FY) are low for hardware and reflect aggressive pricing for GPU-dense systems plus supply-chain mix; any loss of hyperscaler timing causes volatile operating leverage.
- Dell benefits from scale in negotiated component pricing, services margins and storage/network diversification, keeping blended margins higher than Supermicro despite server-heavy mix. Dell’s operational cash flow was $2.5B in Q2.
- HPE’s higher gross margin near ~29% anchors profitability; Juniper integration lifts strategic pricing power in networking where software/subscription margins can expand operating income.
Balance-sheet strength
- Supermicro: cash and equivalents $5.2B vs bank debt and convertibles $4.8B, leaving net cash neutral-to-slightly-levered on certain measures; convertible extinguishment and stock-based adjustments complicate “per-share” measures.
- Dell: larger absolute debt but much stronger operating cash flow and buyback activity; capital structure complexity (tracking stocks historically) necessitates careful debt-service analysis.
- HPE: acquisition-related leverage increased EV and goodwill; management guided for non-GAAP EPS growth while noting integration costs-balance sheet remains investment-grade profile at scale.
Valuation multiples (TTM & forward)
- Supermicro: market cap ≈ $27–28B vs FY25 revenue $22.0B implies trailing market cap / revenue ≈ 1.25x; forward P/E distorted by one-off adjustments and share-count variance.
- Dell: market cap ≈ $88–90B vs FY26 guidance midpoint ~$107B implies P/S ≈ 0.82x; forward P/E and EV/Revenue reflect large services and infrastructure cash flows.
- HPE: market cap ≈ $31–32B vs TTM revenue ~$30B implies P/S ≈ 1.0x; forward P/E in low-to-mid teens given adjusted EPS guidance.
Momentum & technical snapshot
All technical metrics are taken from daily technical snapshots captured 30 September 2025.
Supermicro (SMCI) – technical summary
- RSI(14): 59.29 (neutral-to-strong).
- MACD status: MACD 0.340 (MACD > signal; positive momentum).
- 50d / 200d SMA: 50d = 46.57; 200d = 44.03; current price ~47–48, above both moving averages (bullish).
- 1-month return vs Nasdaq: SMCI ~+15–21% (1-month absolute) vs Nasdaq Composite ~+0.3% (SMCI materially outperformed).
- Average daily dollar volume: ≈ $1.546 billion (average volume ~33.34M × price ~$46.36).
Dell (DELL) – technical summary
- RSI(14): 79.15 (overbought).
- MACD status: MACD 1.830 (MACD > signal; bullish momentum).
- 50d / 200d SMA: 50d = 133.76; 200d = 128.97; current price ~134–142 above both.
- 1-month return vs Nasdaq: DELL +~8–12% vs Nasdaq ~+0.3% (outperformance tied to AI server demand).
- Average daily dollar volume: ≈ $752.5 million (avg vol ~5.62M × price ~$134).
HPE (HPE) – technical summary
- RSI(14): 58.91 (moderate).
- MACD status: MACD -0.060 (MACD < signal; slight negative momentum).
- 50d / 200d SMA: 50d = 24.50; 200d = 23.75; current price ~$24.5 above both.
- 1-month return vs Nasdaq: HPE +~8–9% vs Nasdaq ~+0.3% (outperformance driven by Juniper close).
- Average daily dollar volume: ≈ $503.2 million (avg vol ~20.63M × price ~$24.39).
Peer comparison
Selected public peers for AI datacenter exposure and margin comparison: NVIDIA (NVDA) and AMD (AMD). Metrics below are headline-level and sourced to company releases and market stat pages.
NVIDIA (NVDA) – growth/margin/D/E/forward P/E
- Revenue (Q2 FY2026): $46.7B, +56% YoY; non-GAAP gross margin ~75.5%.
- Total debt/equity: low single-digit % (net cash position; total debt ~10.6B vs large cash).
- Forward P/E: ~41–53x depending on source and forward EPS assumptions.
AMD (AMD) – growth/margin/D/E/forward P/E
- Revenue (Q2 2025): $7.7B, +32% YoY; gross margin ~40% (non-GAAP ~43%); data center revenue +14% YoY.
- Total debt/equity: ~6.5% (moderate leverage).
- Forward P/E: ~27–41x by consensus or model variations.
Interpretation: NVIDIA and AMD show materially higher gross margins and higher forward multiples compared with server OEMs; the OEMs’ multiples reflect hardware distribution, lower gross margin and higher execution risk despite exposure to the same AI demand drivers.
Latest earnings highlights & management guidance
- Supermicro: “For fiscal year 2026, the Company expects net sales of at least $33.0 billion.”
- Dell: “We’ve now shipped $10 billion of AI solutions in the first half of FY26.”
- HPE: “The quarter included one month of Juniper and expands our networking footprint.”
Strategic moves, catalysts & risks
Supermicro: product cadence, hyperscaler timing, execution risk
- Product launches: broad availability and volume shipments of NVIDIA Blackwell HGX B300 solutions and GB300 racks; partnerships with AI OEMs such as Lambda for factory-scale deployments.
- Catalysts: continued Blackwell GPU deployments, liquid cooling adoption, expansion into edge AI systems.
- Risks: forecasting/credibility concerns after preliminary results and late filings in 2025; high customer concentration and hyperscaler timing risk.
Dell: scale, channel reach, and server shipments
- Catalysts: record Servers & Networking growth, rising per-quarter AI solutions shipments, and improved FCF enabling buybacks and margin investments.
- Risks: chip supply shifts, margin pressure if competition forces price declines, macro IT spending cycles.
HPE: strategic M&A and networking + software integration
- Catalysts: closed Juniper acquisition (estimated $14B), expected cross-sell into HPE’s hybrid-cloud base and networking plus software subscriptions expansion.
- Risks: integration execution, DOJ settlement-driven divestitures, goodwill impairment risk and near-term EPS headwinds from integration costs.
Valuation & scenario analysis
Method: simplify to market-cap-based scenario targets using enterprise exposure and revenue multiple assumptions; models assume no material dilution.
Supermicro (current market cap ≈ $27.5B; TTM revenue ≈ $22.0B)
- Conservative: multiple 0.9× revenue → implied market cap ≈ $19.8B → price target ≈ -28% from current. Rationale: execution risk, volatile margins.
- Base: multiple 1.25× revenue → implied market cap ≈ $27.5B → price target ≈ flat (consensus). Assumes steady GPU-server demand and normalization of margins.
- Optimistic: multiple 1.8× revenue → implied market cap ≈ $39.6B → price target ≈ +44%. Assumes margin expansion to mid-teens non-GAAP and hyperscaler inventory normalization.
Dell (market cap ≈ $89B; FY26 revenue midpoint ≈ $107B)
- Conservative: EV/Revenue compression to 0.6× → implied mkt cap ≈ $64B → downside potential ≈ -28%. Rationale: risk of softer IT spend.
- Base: 0.82× (current) → implied mkt cap ≈ $88B → price target neutral; assumes continued AI shipments at guidance.
- Optimistic: 1.1× → implied mkt cap ≈ $118B → upside ≈ +33%; assumes sustained Servers & Networking margin expansion and buyback-driven EPS.
HPE (market cap ≈ $32B; TTM revenue ≈ $30B)
- Conservative: 0.8× revenue → implied mkt cap ≈ $24B → downside ≈ -25%; assumes integration setbacks.
- Base: 1.0× revenue → implied mkt cap ≈ $30B → neutral; assumes Juniper integration and modest ARR growth.
- Optimistic: 1.4× revenue → implied mkt cap ≈ $42B → upside ≈ +31%; assumes successful cross-sell, margin expansion and recurring revenue multiple re-rating.
Trading checklist & signals
Momentum trader rules (short-horizon, tactical)
- Entry: buy pullback to the 50d SMA with RSI between 45–65 and MACD positive on daily close; prefer confirmation with volume above 20-day average. Use the focus keyphrase to track sector rotation: Supermicro vs Dell vs HPE ai servers 2025 momentum signals should favor Dell on strength and HPE on consolidation.
- Stop: initial stop at 6–8% below entry for high-volatility SMCI; 4–6% for DELL/HPE. Tighten stop to breakeven within 5–7 trading days if price moves favorably.
- Size: limit position to 2–4% of portfolio for SMCI; 3–6% for DELL; 2–4% for HPE. Scale-in on volume-backed pullbacks only.
- Exit: take partial profits at +12–20% (SMCI) and +8–12% (DELL/HPE); trail stop by 21-day ATR thereafter.
Long-term investor checklist (fundamental focus)
- Confirmatory indicators before buy: (1) server backlog / orders growth quarter sequential; (2) improving non-GAAP gross margin trend for two consecutive quarters; (3) FCF conversion improving and leverage falling below 1.0x net debt/EBITDA.
- Stop / re-eval triggers: missed guidance or management credibility issues for Supermicro; sequential decline in Servers & Networking revenue for Dell; failed Juniper integration metrics or material ARR contraction for HPE.
- Sizing: core allocation 0.5–2% of long-term equity portfolio per name; overweight only if operational metrics and margins expand sustainably.
